Dave’s Take

Considering how much product is sold in the fourth quarter, it’s amazing to me how generally weak this year’s Christmas spots are. Maybe the majority of creative types are as burned out on the present economy as the rest of America. All I know is that 2009 holiday advertising has left little to talk about. With my disappointment clearly expressed, I now present my second part of the best and worst in holiday TV advertising.

Deserving of Santa’s Best:

1. Amazon Kindle: Great use of step frame editing. I like the playful attitude and catchy theme song. How much holiday advertising this sold-out product requires is debatable, but this campaign should help brand the product as fun and functional.

2. ESPN Sports Center: Okay, the latest amusing offering from ESPN is not technically a Christmas spot, but the sight of Arnold Palmer making an Arnold Palmer is too funny to not praise. ESPN has consistently produced funny ads. Here’s to hoping the trend continues in 2010.

3. Verizon: The accuracy of these Apple bashing spots may be up for debate, but their ability to amuse and attack at the same time is not. I especially like the broken toys spot. And judging from Apple’s response, they must be meeting their objectives.

Deserving Coal:

1. Kay Jewelers: Generally, I find the majority of jewelry ads to be mediocre at best, but the holiday Kay Jewelers ads are beyond bad. The worst one is the “Storm” ad, where a couple clutch each other as they watch a thunderstorm in their winter sweaters. First of all, a thunderstorm in December? Really? Secondly, get better copywriters and actors. The guy’s line about “I’ll always be here for you” is both melodramatic and poorly delivered. Next time, try some snow and competent talent. Why anyone would think of shopping in a Kay store after viewing this fiasco is well beyond me. (By the way, the Jared’s ads are almost as bad.)

2. AVATAR: Okay, while the reviews have been mixed on this $300 million flick, depending on whether the reviewer focused on the technology or the script, their ads need no debate – they suck. While they are running several different versions, they all feature the most over used line in the history of film, “We’re not in Kansas anymore.” No kidding? I was under the impression that the entire mid-west is infested with blue-skinned fairies shooting bows and arrows. If this movie proves to be the blockbuster it looks to be, James Cameron should be praised not for technological advances in film production, but for his ability to overcome a horrible ad campaign.

3. Pharmaceutical Ads: Whether it’s for men’s sexuality, restless legs or female bone degeneration, drug ads have got to be stopped. It’s a wonder how we all got by not knowing the brand names of drugs to ask for prior to the ruling that allowed these predatory ads to air. While most don’t feature a Christmas theme, they all need to be eliminated from the public airways. Let’s not forget, Santa is not licensed to fill our stockings with prescription drugs – bummer!

Here’s to hoping 2010 brings a stronger economy to all and better creative to holiday campaigns. Happy holidays and may your New Year bring you health and happiness.

It should come as no surprise to advertising mavens or even your average Joe Blow, but fourth quarter ad sales are flat and show no real signs of improving. The recession, combined with the credit crunch and rising unemployment are poised to take a one-two punch out of holiday ad spending. Long gone are the days of limitless car ads and shopping mall campaigns.

Despite this obvious spending stalemate, some retailers and television pundits are picking up the pom-poms and are predicting the end of recessionary gift giving this year. As regular readers of my blog know, I am a big proponent of increasing ad spending in times of economic turmoil. I’ve published stats from the last recession proving those retailers who dared to promote ended up with a 4 to 5 times increase in their market share. So, I must applaud national chain stores like JCPenny, Gap Inc. and Best Buy for breaking from the pack and putting their money where their customers are. But I must completely disagree with the ridiculous self-serving cheerleading led by the master of manipulation, CNBC’s Jim Cramer.

Surely you know who Cramer is even if you don’t watch the paid programming that is CNBC. He’s the rolled-sleeve wearing, big button-punching titan of investment who was eviscerated by Comedy Central’s Jon Stewart on national TV earlier in the year for failing to predict the recession and all its glory. Jim Cramer not only missed the boat when it came to reading the impending depressionary tealeaves, but openly admitted to stock manipulation earlier in his career as a know-it-all stockbroker. Now he’s rolled out the soapbox for yet another incompetent proclamation—that holiday spending will not only recover, but actually increase this year!

This self-serving prediction is not only wrong, it’s really wrong. Believe me, I am one of the biggest hopefuls when it comes to an advertising industry turnaround. But I must succumb to the reality of 2009 and realize no amount of rah-rah chitchat is going to change the situation. There is no way in hell fourth quarter ad sales will be back to pre-recessionary levels. Don’t take my word for it, talk to any sane economist, media account rep or agency manager. For that matter, speak to your neighbors and friends. How many of them are planning on spending significantly more on holiday shopping this year as opposed to past years? Not many, if any I’ll wager.

Chris Booth, president of Publicis Group’s Starcom USA, predicts his clients, who include such big names as Hallmark and PetSmart (among others) will continue to scrutinize every ad buy. He believes last season’s trend of advertiser’s penny pinching strategies that included a shift away from expensive mediums like network TV to cable and cutting all print expenditures to continue. “(Spending) in the fourth quarter is tighter than we thought,” Booth laments.

I take no joy whatsoever in commenting on the depressed holiday ad predictions. I can’t wait for the advertising and marketing industries of America to start kicking ass again. But what I don’t need, in fact what I resent, is self-important pontificators like Jim Cramer yakking about how everything is just peachy. I guess if you talk to TV pundits, derivative stockbrokers or big bankers, everything is peachy. Unfortunately, as Michael Moore points out in his latest flick, we don’t live in their world. We just get to bail them out and then watch them on TV telling us how good everything’s going.