Dave’s Take

The L.A. Times is reporting that the Jay Leno Show’s declining numbers are not only bad for Jay, but are proving tragic for local NBC affiliates. According to the Times, Leno’s viewer numbers have fallen from a debut high of over 11 million to a tragically flat average of only 5.6 million last week. Not only is this decline a concern for NBC, but it is a bitter pill to swallow for the vast majority of the 200 local affiliate stations, some of which are at the end of their proverbial broadcasting rope.

In an earlier blog, I basically hoped for Leno’s demise because his success would mean the end of scripted dramas on network TV. (It can be produced for a fraction of a popular drama). Not surprising to me or any other of the hundreds of critics who foresaw its limited shelf-life, the shoddy talk-show product repackaged as new TV is simply living up to its capabilities. How bad are the latest ratings? Even in Jay’s hometown of Boston, the show is tanking and taking down affiliate WHDH’s late news ratings by more than 17%. That’s a huge drop to the only cash cow a local station owns—it’s news programming.

Thanks to the recession, local television stations are already facing significant income loss due to the dramatic decline in automobile and retail sales campaigns. They need a strong lead-in to help boost their late news numbers and the Jay Leno Show isn’t providing any. Despite NBC’s claim that Jay’s familiar shtick, combined with 46 weeks of original programming (twice that of scripted shows) would provide a moderate, yet consistent audience lead-in for affiliates, viewers continue to change the channel on the Chinned One.

Not only are the Peacock Network’s programming decisions keeping it in third place, but its bullying tactics in dealing with local stations is wearing thin as well. NBC has already threatened the licensing of Boston’s WHDH for asking to pull the show and replace it with reruns of syndicated shows or even local programming. Think about that—a station has lost enough confidence in a national show to threaten producing its own hour of local TV. This desperate strategy is unheard of in the recent annals of broadcast television.

Even Jay Leno himself knew that the odds of success were slim. According to industry insiders, Leno insisted on a two-year deal, fearing his mediocrity would never make it past the first three months of a normal show contract. Boy, was he prophetic or what?

Unfortunately, there seems little a local NBC affiliate can do to stop the madness. Short of praying for the quick arrival of 2011, there are few options available to them. Maybe, as a last chance, they should encourage a class-action lawsuit by viewers for fraud and incompetence. It’s a long shot, but so are the chances of any improvement in the Jay Leno Show.

NBC’s latest prime time entry, The Jay Leno Show premiered this week to higher than expected ratings of over 18 million viewers. The new show, which looks just like the old show (minus the desk), drew an audience of fans, curiosity seekers and told ya soers. The fans tuned in because they like the old shoe feel of the show—no real controversy, blue language or racy sketches. The curiosity seekers watched to see if Leno had the daring to break the mold of his persona and take a chance (which he didn’t). The told ya soers watched just long enough to be able to tell their friends and co-workers how right they were with the predictability of the new offering being a weak sister. Overall, not a real satisfying experience for any one.

As someone who can take or leave Jay Leno, I was more in the told ya soers boat. I was not surprised at the milquetoast look and feel of the new show. I had read enough about it to know that the chance of any new breakthroughs or pacing changes was pretty much nil. What did surprise me was how truly bad the writing and skit selection was. I thought that if nothing else, the four-month hiatus the writing staff and host took off would lead to some real solid (if not predictable) jokes. I was wrong. It was almost unwatchable. From the weak monologue to the absolutely horrendous car wash song bit, the jokes were few and far between. This lack of humor is however, just one of the reasons I hope his show tanks.

If the new Jay Leno Show is successful it will spell the end of adult dramas on network television. Because it can be produced for about one-tenth of the expense of a one-hour drama, shows like Jay’s will proliferate on all four networks. This will all but doom dramas, as they are usually aired in the last hour of prime time. Besides all the writers, directors, producers, grips, make-up artists and production assistants being put out of work by reality and variety shows, the success of jay Leno will help complete the slide into comprehensive script free programming. Do we really need or want more of this schlock? I think not.

Jay Leno is a talented guy who from all reports is also nice and deserving. Before his network sellout he was a great stand-up comedian, performing comedy in clubs over 300 times a year. I hate to actively root against his prosperity, but he has left me no choice. In the war of Survivor versus West Wing, I’m on the side of the guys who know how to act, not just react.