Dave’s Take

Do you remember how broadcast pundits predicted what the future of television would be in the year 2010? How they proclaimed there would be a channel for everyone, regardless of their interests? How the utter abundance of cable and satellite channels would be so unlimited as to be profitable regardless of the specificity of their program’s topics? Well, it’s now 2010 and the pundits didn’t quite get it right.

Sure at first, during the 90s, the availability of hundreds of broadcast channels seemed to be headed in the “anything goes” approach, but then reality set in for everyone. Production companies came to the undeniable conclusion that you really couldn’t make money on simply broadcasting puppies all day, despite their overwhelming cuteness. Cable companies discovered people might like to watch a burning Yule log in fireplaces for an hour on Christmas morning, but that it wore thin the other 364 days each year. In short, in order to make money in the new millennium of entertainment you had to do what has always been done – diversify.

New start-ups like Court TV which were buoyed by early success of big trials like O.J. and the Menendez brothers felt like they had tapped into the collective psyche of America, only to discover that the day to day coverage of ordinary people’s legal problems didn’t generate the viewers they were lead to believe existed. After several years of struggling to build brand loyalty, they threw in the towel and renamed their network truTV. They also diversified their programming to include shows like Cops, Forensic Files, Operation Repo and the old standby, paid programming. Likewise, the Sci-Fi Network watered down their only science fiction programming along with a name change to the ambiguous Syfy so they could show anything they deemed money making. Even the big-brained enticing History Channel slowed down on smart shows and began broadcasting blue-collar shows like Pawn Stars and Axe Men.

Today’s broadcast landscape is not quite the utopia of targeted programming we were promised, but does it really matter? America is a diverse pot of stew and as a reflection of that diversity, so is our entertainment. For those who insist on topical purity in their viewing there’s always the Internet, where rumor has it cute cat videos are abundant.

The L.A. Times is reporting that the Jay Leno Show’s declining numbers are not only bad for Jay, but are proving tragic for local NBC affiliates. According to the Times, Leno’s viewer numbers have fallen from a debut high of over 11 million to a tragically flat average of only 5.6 million last week. Not only is this decline a concern for NBC, but it is a bitter pill to swallow for the vast majority of the 200 local affiliate stations, some of which are at the end of their proverbial broadcasting rope.

In an earlier blog, I basically hoped for Leno’s demise because his success would mean the end of scripted dramas on network TV. (It can be produced for a fraction of a popular drama). Not surprising to me or any other of the hundreds of critics who foresaw its limited shelf-life, the shoddy talk-show product repackaged as new TV is simply living up to its capabilities. How bad are the latest ratings? Even in Jay’s hometown of Boston, the show is tanking and taking down affiliate WHDH’s late news ratings by more than 17%. That’s a huge drop to the only cash cow a local station owns—it’s news programming.

Thanks to the recession, local television stations are already facing significant income loss due to the dramatic decline in automobile and retail sales campaigns. They need a strong lead-in to help boost their late news numbers and the Jay Leno Show isn’t providing any. Despite NBC’s claim that Jay’s familiar shtick, combined with 46 weeks of original programming (twice that of scripted shows) would provide a moderate, yet consistent audience lead-in for affiliates, viewers continue to change the channel on the Chinned One.

Not only are the Peacock Network’s programming decisions keeping it in third place, but its bullying tactics in dealing with local stations is wearing thin as well. NBC has already threatened the licensing of Boston’s WHDH for asking to pull the show and replace it with reruns of syndicated shows or even local programming. Think about that—a station has lost enough confidence in a national show to threaten producing its own hour of local TV. This desperate strategy is unheard of in the recent annals of broadcast television.

Even Jay Leno himself knew that the odds of success were slim. According to industry insiders, Leno insisted on a two-year deal, fearing his mediocrity would never make it past the first three months of a normal show contract. Boy, was he prophetic or what?

Unfortunately, there seems little a local NBC affiliate can do to stop the madness. Short of praying for the quick arrival of 2011, there are few options available to them. Maybe, as a last chance, they should encourage a class-action lawsuit by viewers for fraud and incompetence. It’s a long shot, but so are the chances of any improvement in the Jay Leno Show.